Statistical Modelling of Water Main Failures
This report was produced for the Urban Water Research Association of Australia, a now discontinued research program.
Report No UWRAA 33
UWRAA research project No. AM-11 Statistical Modelling of Water Main Failures requires an investigation of the Sydney Water Board’s water mains and main breaks databases and the trial application of an assessment methodology reported by Marks, Andreou, Jeffrey, Park and Zaslavsky from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 1987, which uses a survival model.
After close examination of both databases it was discovered that information available, particularly with regard to surviving pipe asset details, was not sufficient to allow the survival model to be used.
It was therefore necessary to use another method of analysis. Through the analysis of break rates, defined as the number of failures per kilometre, it has been possible to demonstrate the statistical association between aggressive soils and the expected life of water mains.